6
Passionfruit
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 90
Churchill Downs · Race 6 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
18%
Place Prob
27%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-20 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 6th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength53%
Delivery trend -16.5% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 91% | +0.44 |
| 20/06/2026 | 6th | 13/8 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |
| 01/08/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |