Epernay

2yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 82

Churchill Downs · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength10%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C5.3

Today:

Class gap: -0.2

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-30	Kentucky Downs	?	9th	8th	+1	1.6
2026-07-25	Ellis Park	?	1st	2nd	−1	7.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 7-7 · 68%

▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only

Trend▼

Strength29%

Delivery trend -11.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
25/07/2026	1st	6/1	68%	100%	+0.32
30/08/2026	9th	25/1	0%	20%	+0.20