Estardotoo

2yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 77

Churchill Downs · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▬

Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C5.4

Today:

Class gap: -0.4

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-30	Kentucky Downs	?	5th	4th	+1	5.6
2026-07-10	Ellis Park	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-06-15	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	1st	2nd	−1	7.8
2026-05-22	Churchill Downs	?	6th	7th	−1	2.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%

▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only

Trend▲

Strength80%

Delivery trend +22.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
22/05/2026	6th	12/1	37%	17%	-0.20
15/06/2026	1st	7/1	63%	100%	+0.37
10/07/2026	3rd	10/1	47%	67%	+0.19
30/08/2026	5th	40/1	0%	60%	+0.60