Gone And Plenty

2yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 85

Churchill Downs · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength22%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C5.0

Today:

Class gap: 0.0

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-30	Kentucky Downs	?	6th	5th	+1	4.6
2026-07-12	Woodbine	?	8th	7th	+1	2.6
2026-06-19	Churchill Downs	?	1st	2nd	−1	7.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▲

Strength75%

Delivery trend +9.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
19/06/2026	1st	3/1	84%	100%	+0.16
12/07/2026	8th	11/4	86%	0%	-0.86
30/08/2026	6th	16/1	16%	50%	+0.34