2
Blackout Time
3yo Colt · 8-6 · OR 99
Churchill Downs · Race 8 - Bourbon Flight Stakes · 1m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
96%
Place Prob
78%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength51%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Fairmount Park | BHA97 | 3rd | 9th | −5 |
| 2026-08-02 | Saratoga | BHA101 | 5th | 12th | −6 |
| 2026-06-27 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-28 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 5th | 0th | +4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 4th | -1th | +4 |
| 2025-10-04 | Keeneland | ? | 2nd | -3th | +4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 4-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength17%
Delivery trend -8.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 90% | +0.43 |
| 02/08/2025 | 1st | 1/2 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 04/10/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 01/03/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 63% | -0.27 |
| 28/03/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 43% | -0.31 |
| 27/06/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 02/08/2026 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 33% | -0.55 |
| 29/08/2026 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 60% | -0.31 |