4
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3yo Colt · 8-6 · OR 100
Churchill Downs · Race 8 - Bourbon Flight Stakes · 1m 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
15%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | -3th | +4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-11 | Keeneland | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-08-08 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength17%
Delivery trend -8.3% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 11/10/2025 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 86% | -0.06 |
| 21/11/2025 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 01/08/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 86% | +0.38 |
| 07/09/2026 | 11th | 15/2 | 61% | 23% | -0.37 |