Local Knowledge

3yo Colt · 8-6 · OR 113

Churchill Downs · Race 8 - Bourbon Flight Stakes · 1m 110y

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▼2

Strength61%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.6 /10 (raw 2.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C2.9

Today:

Class gap: +1.6

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-29	Saratoga	?	3rd	-2th	+4	5.0
2026-07-31	Saratoga	?	1st	-4th	+4	5.0
2026-06-06	Saratoga	?	3rd	4th	−1	6.4
2025-10-04	Keeneland	?	1st	3rd	−2	7.2

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%

▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only

Trend▼

Strength70%

Delivery trend -6.7% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
04/10/2025	1st	3/1	84%	100%	+0.16
06/06/2026	3rd	11/8	93%	83%	-0.09
31/07/2026	1st	7/2	82%	100%	+0.18
29/08/2026	3rd	13/2	66%	50%	-0.16