1
Plutarch
3yo Colt · 8-6 · OR 109
Churchill Downs · Race 8 - Bourbon Flight Stakes · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength66%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.6 /10 (raw 2.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.0
Today:
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-08 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | -4th | +4 |
| 2025-12-01 | Del Mar | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-10-31 | Del Mar | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-04 | Santa Anita | ? | 3rd | -2th | +4 |
| 2025-09-08 | Del Mar | ? | 2nd | -3th | +4 |
| 2025-08-23 | Del Mar | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength87%
Delivery trend -0.6% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 1st of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 75% | +0.09 |
| 08/09/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 92% | +0.15 |
| 04/10/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 31/10/2025 | 3rd | 1/1 | 95% | 71% | -0.23 |
| 01/12/2025 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 08/02/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |