Steel
3yo Colt · 8-6 · OR 100
Churchill Downs · Race 8 - Bourbon Flight Stakes · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-27 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-24 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-04-04 | Aqueduct | ? | 9th | 4th | +4 |
| 2026-02-28 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 04/04/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 02/05/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 24/05/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 30% | +0.04 |
| 27/06/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 07/08/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |