5
Stimulate
3yo Colt · 8-6 · OR 94
Churchill Downs · Race 8 - Bourbon Flight Stakes · 1m 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
9/5
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-18 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-08-23 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +15.7% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 43% | -0.26 |
| 18/07/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 22/08/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |