4
Bishops Bay
6yo Horse · 8-11 · OR 118
Churchill Downs · Race 9 - Ack Ack Stakes - Grade 3 · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
9/5
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength21%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 1.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.5
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-02 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-08-23 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 6th | +0 |
| 2025-06-14 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength79%
Delivery trend -1.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/01/2025 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 29/03/2025 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 04/05/2025 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 14/06/2025 | 1st | 3/10 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 23/08/2025 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 44% | -0.13 |
| 02/11/2025 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 03/05/2026 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 67% | -0.27 |
| 13/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/6 | 96% | 80% | -0.16 |
| 15/08/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |