6
Coal Battle
4yo Colt · 8-9 · OR 113
Churchill Downs · Race 9 - Ack Ack Stakes - Grade 3 · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength21%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.9
Today:
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 8th | −4 |
| 2026-06-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2025-07-05 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-06-08 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength35%
Delivery trend -6.3% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/02/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 29/03/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 03/05/2025 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 08/06/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 05/07/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |
| 02/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 30/05/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |
| 28/06/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 09/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |