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7

East Avenue

4yo Colt · 8-11 · OR 107

Churchill Downs · Race 9 - Ack Ack Stakes - Grade 3 · 1m

#1

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

93%

Place Prob

69%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength44%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Fair Grounds 16/02/2025 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 102 · 1m1f Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/02/2025 · OR 102 par16/02C?OR 102C0 @ Keeneland 08/04/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 95 · 1m1f Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/04/2025 · OR 95 parC0 @ Churchill Downs 03/05/2025 · Pos 8th of 19 · OR 95 · 1m2f Slo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/05/2025 · OR 95 par3/05C?OR 95C1 @ Churchill Downs 08/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 98 · 1m110y Fas 123 · beat its mark08/06/2025 · OR 98 parC1 @ Mountaineer 04/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 107 · 1m1f Fas 120 · beat its mark04/08/2025 · OR 107 par4/08C1OR 107C1 @ Oaklawn Park 28/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 106 · 1m Fas 117 · beat its mark28/03/2026 · OR 106 parC0 @ Churchill Downs 01/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 108 · 1m110y Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/05/2026 · OR 108 par1/05C?OR 108C1 @ Monmouth Park 13/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 107 · 1m Fas 118 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 107 parC1 @ Monmouth Park 15/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 105 · 1m110y Fas 124 · below its mark15/08/2026 · OR 105 par15/08C1OR 105projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-15Monmouth Park?4th4th0
2026-06-13Monmouth Park?1st1st0
2026-05-01Churchill Downs?4th4th+0
2026-03-28Oaklawn Park?2nd2nd0
2025-08-04Mountaineer?5th5th0
2025-06-08Churchill Downs?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/028/061/0515/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength60%

Delivery trend -1.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/02/202510th8/1196%18%-0.78
08/04/20252nd11/271%83%+0.12
03/05/20258th33/10%61%+0.61
08/06/20251st5/493%100%+0.07
04/08/20255th4/596%43%-0.53
28/03/20262nd13/266%83%+0.18
01/05/20264th14/126%50%+0.24
13/06/20261st10/382%100%+0.18
15/08/20264th11/1094%0%-0.94