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Macho Music

4yo Colt · 8-9 · OR 108

Churchill Downs · Race 9 - Ack Ack Stakes - Grade 3 · 1m

#5

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲4
Strength22%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 9.8 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: -3.8
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Tampa Bay Downs 30/03/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 92 · 7f Fas 122 · beat its mark30/03/2025 · OR 92 par30/03C5OR 92C0 @ Churchill Downs 03/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 100 · 1m Slo 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/05/2025 · OR 100 parC0 @ Saratoga 25/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 102 · 6f110y Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/07/2025 · OR 102 par25/07C?OR 102C5 @ Gulfstream 28/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 105 · 7f Fas 120 · below its mark28/03/2026 · OR 105 parC0 @ Churchill Downs 02/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 102 · 7f Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 102 par2/05C?OR 102C6 @ Churchill Downs 21/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 98 · 7f Gd 123 · below its mark21/05/2026 · OR 98 parC6 @ Churchill Downs 17/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 99 · 6f 121 · below its mark17/06/2026 · OR 99 par17/06C6OR 99C6 @ Colonial Downs 06/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 100 · 6f110y Fas 122 · below its mark06/07/2026 · OR 100 parC6 @ Colonial Downs 20/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 103 · 1m 122 · below its mark20/08/2026 · OR 103 par20/08C6OR 103projClass-projected finish: 7th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-20Colonial Downs?2nd8th−5
2026-07-06Colonial Downs?3rd9th−5
2026-06-17Churchill Downs?3rd9th−5
2026-05-21Churchill Downs?8th14th−5
2026-05-02Churchill Downs?9th9th+0
2026-03-28Gulfstream?6th11th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0328/0317/0620/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 4-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%

Delivery trend -1.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/03/20251st1/398%100%+0.02
03/05/20251st12/137%100%+0.63
25/07/20254th13/891%50%-0.41
28/03/20266th7/282%38%-0.44
02/05/20269th50/10%20%+0.20
21/05/20268th8/158%0%-0.58
17/06/20263rd12/137%75%+0.38
06/07/20263rd11/893%50%-0.43
20/08/20262nd7/163%80%+0.17