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4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 110

Churchill Downs · Race 9 - Ack Ack Stakes - Grade 3 · 1m

#3

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength10%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 2.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.6
Today:
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Churchill Downs 13/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 85 · 6f 121 · beat its mark13/09/2025 · OR 85 par13/09C6OR 85C6 @ Keeneland 03/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 92 · 7f 121 · below its mark03/10/2025 · OR 92 parC6 @ Keeneland 22/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 96 · 6f Fas 121 · below its mark22/10/2025 · OR 96 par22/10C6OR 96C6 @ Oaklawn Park 26/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 96 · 1m Fas 122 · beat its mark26/12/2025 · OR 96 parC5 @ Oaklawn Park 05/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 99 · 1m110y 124 · beat its mark05/02/2026 · OR 99 par5/02C5OR 99C3 @ Oaklawn Park 28/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 1m110y 115C1 @ Oaklawn Park 28/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 110 · 1m Fas 124 · beat its mark28/03/2026 · OR 110 par28/03C1OR 110C0 @ Churchill Downs 01/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 114 · 1m110y Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark01/05/2026 · OR 114 parC1 @ Churchill Downs 28/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 112 · 1m 120 · beat its mark28/06/2026 · OR 112 par28/06C1OR 112projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-28Churchill Downs?1st1st0
2026-05-01Churchill Downs?5th5th+0
2026-03-28Oaklawn Park?1st1st0
2026-02-28Oaklawn Park?2nd5th−2
2026-02-05Oaklawn Park?1st6th−4
2025-12-26Oaklawn Park?1st8th−5

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/0926/1228/0328/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▼
Strength80%

Delivery trend -3.2% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price, confirming the short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/09/20252nd16/116%91%+0.75
03/10/20253rd9/276%80%+0.04
22/10/20253rd5/287%82%-0.05
26/12/20251st6/492%100%+0.08
05/02/20261st2/598%100%+0.02
28/02/20262nd2/189%80%-0.09
28/03/20261st15/890%100%+0.10
01/05/20265th10/147%33%-0.14
28/06/20261st7/163%100%+0.37