3
Owen Almighty
4yo Colt · 8-11 · OR 108
Churchill Downs · Race 9 - Ack Ack Stakes - Grade 3 · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲3
Strength21%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.4
Today:
Class gap: -2.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-06-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 8th | −5 |
| 2026-03-28 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 12th | −4 |
| 2025-10-18 | Keeneland | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-08-23 | Charles Town | ? | 8th | 13th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength78%
Delivery trend +1.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 08/04/2025 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 17% | -0.65 |
| 03/05/2025 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 23/08/2025 | 8th | 2/1 | 89% | 0% | -0.89 |
| 18/10/2025 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 28/03/2026 | 7th | 3/1 | 84% | 25% | -0.59 |
| 28/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 86% | +0.00 |
| 28/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 89% | +0.26 |
| 09/08/2026 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |