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15

Amerilis

3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 82

Curragh · Kwiff Supercharged Joe McGrath Handicap (Premier Handicap) · 5f

#13

Rank

Odds

11/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#13

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Low-mileage sprinter. Showed improved form when opening account with a ready success in 12-runner handicap at Cork. Ran a cracker off her revised mark when ¾-length second at Navan since (form taken a few knocks). Still potentially on a handy mark but upped in grade here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength6%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class: BHA62
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Curragh 25/05/2025 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR - · 6f Gd 12825/05C8C8 @ Leopardstown 24/07/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 7f57y Yie 123C8 @ Curragh 28/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR - · 6f Sft 12928/03C8BHA65 @ Curragh 04/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 20 · OR 65 · 6f Gd 125 · below its mark04/05/2026 · OR 65 parBHA62 @ Curragh 03/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 18 · OR 62 · 6f63y Goo 132 · beat its mark03/06/2026 · OR 62 par3/0662OR 62C8 @ Curragh 27/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 20 · OR 63 · 6f GF 129 · below its mark27/06/2026 · OR 63 parBHA66 @ Navan 11/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 66 · 5f Goo 137 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 66 par11/0766OR 66BHA67 @ Cork 14/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 67 · 5f Goo 139 · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 67 parBHA80 @ Navan 02/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR 80 · 5f Goo 139 · below its mark02/09/2026 · OR 80 par2/0980OR 80projClass-projected finish: 1st of 20
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02NavanBHA802nd2nd0
2026-08-14CorkBHA671st1st0
2026-07-11NavanBHA662nd2nd0
2026-06-27Curragh?6th6th0
2026-06-03CurraghBHA622nd2nd0
2026-05-04CurraghBHA659th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/054/0511/072/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 2058% of fieldRange 1-18 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength68%

Delivery trend +5.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 20. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/05/20256th17/255%58%+0.03
24/07/20256th9/488%17%-0.71
28/03/20264th33/10%73%+0.73
04/05/20269th33/10%58%+0.58
03/06/20262nd5/174%94%+0.20
27/06/20266th22/10%74%+0.74
11/07/20262nd6/168%89%+0.20
14/08/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
02/09/20262nd13/266%93%+0.28