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14

Cardiff By The Sea

3yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 83

Curragh · Kwiff Supercharged Joe McGrath Handicap (Premier Handicap) · 5f

#17

Rank

Odds

18/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#17

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Free-going sort who made a winning return in maiden at Cork (5f) in April. Tongue strap on for first time when beaten 5 lengths in listed race there last time. Big-field event may suit better, however, the handicapper hasn't missed her.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Naas 18/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR - · 5f Goo 12618/05C?1 @ Royal Ascot 18/06/2025 · Pos 4th of 23 · OR - · 5f GF 1281 @ Naas 23/07/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR - · 5f Yie 12823/071C8 @ Cork 04/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 5f Sft 1291 @ Naas 27/04/2026 · Pos 14th of 15 · OR 97 · 5f Gd 120 · beat its mark27/04/2026 · OR 97 par27/041OR 971 @ Ayr 20/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR 91 · 5f Sft 126 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 91 parBHA91 @ Naas 04/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 91 · 5f Goo 126 · below its mark04/07/2026 · OR 91 par4/0791OR 911 @ Cork 30/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 86 · 5f Yie 126 · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 86 par30/081OR 86projClass-projected finish: 17th of 20
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-30Cork15th5th0
2026-07-04NaasBHA915th5th0
2026-06-20Ayr17th7th0
2026-04-27Naas114th14th0
2026-04-04Cork?1st1st0
2025-07-23Naas17th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/054/044/0730/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 2032% of fieldRange 3-20 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength24%

Delivery trend +2.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 14th of 20. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/05/20252nd12/137%67%+0.30
18/06/20254th11/142%86%+0.44
23/07/20257th9/488%0%-0.88
04/04/20261st13/891%100%+0.09
27/04/202614th22/10%7%+0.07
20/06/20267th25/10%57%+0.57
04/07/20265th14/126%0%-0.26
30/08/20265th22/10%43%+0.43