IvyArcIvyArc
10

Dark Ace

4yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 88

Curragh · Kwiff Supercharged Joe McGrath Handicap (Premier Handicap) · 5f

#9

Rank

Odds

11/4

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fine third over C&D in early-summer. Back on the up when winning 12-runner handicap at Dundalk and still in good form when 3½ lengths sixth (not ideally placed) here (6f) last time. Solid chance at the weights, though draw could have been kinder.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength18%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C7.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA79 @ Dundalk 17/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 79 · 7f Std 119 · below its mark17/12/2025 · OR 79 par17/1279OR 794 @ Wolverhampton 20/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 79 · 6f20y Std 130 · beat its mark20/03/2026 · OR 79 par3 @ Lingfield 03/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 83 · 6f1y Std 128 · beat its mark03/04/2026 · OR 83 par3/043OR 832 @ Newbury 16/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 88 · 6f Goo 122 · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 88 parBHA89 @ Curragh 28/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR 89 · 5f Gd 132 · below its mark28/06/2026 · OR 89 par28/0689OR 89BHA93 @ Curragh 18/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 20 · OR 93 · 6f63y Goo 131 · below its mark18/07/2026 · OR 93 parBHA92 @ Galway 02/08/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 92 · 7f Yie 130 · below its mark02/08/2026 · OR 92 par2/0892OR 92BHA91 @ Dundalk 15/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 91 · 6f Std 131 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 91 parBHA88 @ Curragh 13/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 24 · OR 88 · 6f Yie 123 · below its mark13/09/2026 · OR 88 par13/0988OR 88projClass-projected finish: 7th of 20
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13CurraghBHA886th6th0
2026-08-15DundalkBHA911st1st0
2026-08-02GalwayBHA9212th12th0
2026-07-18CurraghBHA9310th10th0
2026-06-28CurraghBHA893rd3rd0
2026-05-16Newbury23rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/1216/052/0813/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 2084% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength98%

Delivery trend -1.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 20.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/12/20253rd7/282%78%-0.04
20/03/20261st8/158%100%+0.42
03/04/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
16/05/20263rd16/116%85%+0.69
28/06/20263rd9/276%87%+0.10
18/07/202610th17/255%53%-0.03
02/08/202612th25/10%15%+0.15
15/08/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
13/09/20266th15/261%78%+0.18