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11

Red Evolution

4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 85

Curragh · Kwiff Supercharged Joe McGrath Handicap (Premier Handicap) · 5f

#10

Rank

Odds

10/3

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#10

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Useful sprinter who proved better than ever in first-time tongue strap when taking 11-runner handicap at Naas last month. Only beaten by an improved British raider in a big-field course handicap (6f) since. No surprise if he makes a bold bid here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength1%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C8.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA85 @ Cork 20/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 85 · 5f Goo 133 · beat its mark20/05/2025 · OR 85 par20/0585OR 85BHA87 @ Curragh 04/06/2025 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 87 · 5f Goo 134 · below its mark04/06/2025 · OR 87 parBHA87 @ Curragh 29/06/2025 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 87 · 5f Gd 119 · below its mark29/06/2025 · OR 87 par29/0687OR 87BHA88 @ Cork 25/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 88 · 5f Goo 124 · beat its mark25/07/2025 · OR 88 parBHA85 @ Dundalk 13/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 85 · 5f Std 140 · below its mark13/03/2026 · OR 85 par13/0385OR 85BHA89 @ Curragh 28/06/2026 · Pos 12th of 16 · OR 89 · 5f Gd 132 · below its mark28/06/2026 · OR 89 parBHA87 @ Curragh 18/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 20 · OR 87 · 6f63y Goo 125 · below its mark18/07/2026 · OR 87 par18/0787OR 87BHA83 @ Naas 03/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 83 · 5f205y Goo 140 · beat its mark03/08/2026 · OR 83 parBHA84 @ Curragh 13/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 24 · OR 84 · 6f Yie 119 · below its mark13/09/2026 · OR 84 par13/0984OR 84projClass-projected finish: 4th of 20
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13CurraghBHA842nd2nd0
2026-08-03NaasBHA831st1st0
2026-07-18CurraghBHA877th7th0
2026-06-28CurraghBHA8912th12th0
2026-03-13DundalkBHA854th4th0
2025-07-25CorkBHA881st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/0525/0718/0713/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 2079% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +5.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 20. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/05/20251st5/174%100%+0.26
04/06/20257th7/163%54%-0.09
29/06/20252nd10/147%92%+0.45
25/07/20251st9/276%100%+0.24
13/03/20264th5/287%40%-0.47
28/06/202612th8/158%27%-0.31
18/07/20267th40/10%68%+0.68
03/08/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
13/09/20262nd16/116%96%+0.80