18
Sommelier
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 75
Curragh · Kwiff Supercharged Joe McGrath Handicap (Premier Handicap) · 5f
#19
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#19
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 11.5 /10 (raw 8.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Curragh | BHA78 | 19th | 19th | 0 |
| 2026-09-09 | Cork | BHA78 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Galway | BHA82 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Curragh | BHA83 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Navan | BHA72 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Curragh | BHA72 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish19th of 205% of fieldRange 10-20 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -4.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 19th of 20. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 09/05/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |
| 16/05/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 03/06/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 07/06/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 27/06/2026 | 14th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 28/07/2026 | 15th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/09/2026 | 15th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 13/09/2026 | 19th | 100/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |