Stag Night
8yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 90
Curragh · Kwiff Supercharged Joe McGrath Handicap (Premier Handicap) · 5f
#8
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-28 | Curragh | BHA94 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Navan | BHA94 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Curragh | BHA89 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Curragh | BHA88 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-15 | Curragh | BHA89 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-02 | Curragh | BHA89 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 20. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 82% | +0.13 |
| 28/04/2025 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 57% | -0.19 |
| 11/10/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 02/11/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 69% | -0.10 |
| 15/03/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 28/03/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 92% | +0.16 |
| 19/04/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 07/06/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 28/06/2026 | 14th | 14/1 | 26% | 13% | -0.13 |