4
City House
5yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 88
Curragh · Izuzu Ireland Handicap · 7f
#8
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Gowran Park | BHA89 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Galway | BHA92 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Curragh | BHA94 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Cork | BHA95 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Curragh | BHA95 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Chester | 2 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength75%
Delivery trend -4.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/02/2026 | 2nd | 40/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |
| 03/04/2026 | 12th | 33/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 27/04/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 64% | +0.22 |
| 06/05/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 23/05/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 14/06/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 79% | +0.73 |
| 18/07/2026 | 11th | 10/1 | 47% | 47% | 0.00 |
| 02/08/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 19/09/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |