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Excellent Believe

4yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 99

Curragh · Izuzu Ireland Handicap · 7f

#3

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Useful sort, placed several times at Group 3/listed level, and shaped well on debut for current yard when seventh of 17 behind Krasimir at Leopardstown, beaten only 2 lengths despite trouble. Colin Keane is an eye-catching booking, but others look better treated.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength6%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 9.2 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Chester 12/07/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 95 · 7f1y Goo 125 · beat its mark12/07/2025 · OR 95 par12/071OR 953 @ Haydock 09/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 95 · 7f37y Goo 136 · beat its mark09/08/2025 · OR 95 par1 @ Haydock 06/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 99 · 1m37y Gd 126 · beat its mark06/09/2025 · OR 99 par6/091OR 99C1 @ Craon 28/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 108 · 1m44y Ver 124 · beat its mark28/09/2025 · OR 108 par1 @ Doncaster 28/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 108 · 1m Goo 128 · beat its mark28/03/2026 · OR 108 par28/031OR 1081 @ Leopardstown 10/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 108 · 1m Gd 135 · beat its mark10/05/2026 · OR 108 par2 @ Royal Ascot 17/06/2026 · Pos 27th of 28 · OR 106 · 1m GF 134 · below its mark17/06/2026 · OR 106 par17/062OR 1062 @ Sandown 04/07/2026 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR 103 · 1m Goo 131 · below its mark04/07/2026 · OR 103 parBHA99 @ Leopardstown 12/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 17 · OR 99 · 7f Gd 138 · below its mark12/09/2026 · OR 99 par12/0999OR 99projClass-projected finish: 8th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12LeopardstownBHA997th7th0
2026-07-04Sandown213th13th0
2026-06-17Royal Ascot227th27th0
2026-05-10Leopardstown13rd3rd0
2026-03-28Doncaster13rd3rd0
2025-09-28Craon?2nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0728/0917/0612/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength80%

Delivery trend -0.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/07/20256th9/276%29%-0.48
09/08/20251st5/174%100%+0.26
06/09/20252nd12/137%88%+0.51
28/09/20252nd10/1195%88%-0.08
28/03/20263rd9/276%50%-0.26
10/05/20263rd11/486%71%-0.14
17/06/202627th33/10%4%+0.04
04/07/202613th14/126%8%-0.19
12/09/20267th15/261%63%+0.02