7
Love Billy Boy
5yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 86
Curragh · Izuzu Ireland Handicap · 7f
#6
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C9.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | Fairyhouse | BHA90 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-15 | Curragh | BHA93 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-08-03 | Galway | BHA96 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2025-07-10 | Leopardstown | BHA96 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-06-29 | Curragh | BHA93 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-06-05 | Leopardstown | BHA87 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 10-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -9.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/03/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 91% | +0.17 |
| 23/03/2025 | 6th | 11/8 | 93% | 64% | -0.28 |
| 28/04/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 05/06/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 29/06/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 91% | +0.15 |
| 10/07/2025 | 9th | 8/1 | 58% | 27% | -0.31 |
| 03/08/2025 | 14th | 12/1 | 37% | 7% | -0.30 |
| 15/03/2026 | 9th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 12/06/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 20% | -0.56 |