IvyArcIvyArc
8

Temperance

4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 80

Curragh · Izuzu Ireland Handicap · 7f

#10

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Sole success came in a 6f Naas handicap last spring. Has found things tough in listed races/Group 3 this season and wasn't sparked back to form by a return to handicapping company last time. Still 5 lb above last winning mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA75 @ Naas 10/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 75 · 5f205y Goo 129 · beat its mark10/05/2025 · OR 75 par10/0575OR 751 @ Naas 18/05/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 81 · 5f205y Goo 128 · beat its mark18/05/2025 · OR 81 parBHA84 @ Naas 25/06/2025 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 84 · 5f205y Gd 125 · below its mark25/06/2025 · OR 84 par25/0684OR 841 @ Leopardstown 10/07/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 82 · 7f GF 127 · beat its mark10/07/2025 · OR 82 par1 @ Curragh 28/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 80 · 6f Gd 128 · beat its mark28/06/2026 · OR 80 par28/061OR 801 @ Naas 22/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 15 · OR 84 · 5f205y Goo 133 · beat its mark22/07/2026 · OR 84 par1 @ Cork 14/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 84 · 7f Goo 128 · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 84 par14/081OR 841 @ Naas 23/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 84 · 5f205y Goo 133 · beat its mark23/08/2026 · OR 84 parBHA83 @ Fairyhouse 21/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 83 · 7f Goo 138 · below its mark21/09/2026 · OR 83 par21/0983OR 83projClass-projected finish: 9th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-21FairyhouseBHA838th8th0
2026-08-23Naas17th7th0
2026-08-14Cork17th7th0
2026-07-22Naas111th11th0
2026-06-28Curragh16th6th0
2025-07-10Leopardstown18th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/0510/0714/0821/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 3-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength38%

Delivery trend +4.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/05/20251st5/174%100%+0.26
18/05/20255th80/10%20%+0.20
25/06/20255th9/276%0%-0.76
10/07/20258th66/10%0%0.00
28/06/20266th80/10%38%+0.38
22/07/202611th66/10%29%+0.29
14/08/20267th100/10%40%+0.40
23/08/20267th100/10%14%+0.14
21/09/20268th33/10%36%+0.36