14
Ballinea Star
2yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 100
Curragh · Goffs Million · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Curragh | 1 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Curragh | 1 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Cork | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Navan | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Naas | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1894% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength93%
Delivery trend +18.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 18. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/04/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 16/05/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 14/06/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 27/06/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 13/09/2026 | 4th | 80/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |