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10

Nobelos

2yo Colt · 9-5 · OR 81

Curragh · Goffs Million · 7f

#11

Rank

Odds

66/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Completely different proposition with his debut under his belt when springing a 33/1 surprise at Ascot 3 weeks ago (6f). Still didn't look the finished article so there's more to come, for all that form is ordinary.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength8%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 2.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Windsor 17/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR - · 6f12y GF 13317/0842 @ Ascot 04/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 6f Goo 1304/092projClass-projected finish: 1st of 16
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Ascot21st1st0
2026-08-17Windsor44th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/084/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1876% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +66.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 18. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/08/20264th12/137%70%+0.33
04/09/20261st33/10%100%+1.00