IvyArcIvyArc
3

Leopold The First

4yo Gelding · 9-13 · OR 87

Curragh · Gra Chocolates Maiden · 1m 2f

#3

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Maiden who finished runner-up for a fourth consecutive start when beaten only by a subsequent Group 2 winner in 4-runner minor event at Gowran (9.5f) in June, albeit flattered by his proximity. Failed to repeat that effort at Gowran but still an obvious contender back in maiden company.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength34%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: BHA74
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Dundalk 28/02/2025 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR - · 1m Std 13428/02C8C8 @ Dundalk 11/04/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 1m Std 134C8 @ Limerick 11/06/2025 · Pos 13th of 16 · OR - · 1m Gd 13411/06C8C8 @ Dundalk 31/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR - · 1m Std 134BHA74 @ Dundalk 26/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 74 · 1m Std 132 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/11/2025 · OR 74 par26/1174OR 74C8 @ Dundalk 19/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 78 · 1m Std 134 · below its mark19/12/2025 · OR 78 parBHA78 @ Dundalk 27/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 78 · 1m Std 138 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark27/02/2026 · OR 78 par27/0278OR 78BHA77 @ Gowran Park 12/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 77 · 1m1f100y Yie 136 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark12/06/2026 · OR 77 parBHA90 @ Gowran Park 25/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 90 · 1m1f110y Goo 135 · below its mark25/07/2026 · OR 90 par25/0790OR 90projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-25Gowran ParkBHA906th7th−1
2026-06-12Gowran ParkBHA772nd2nd+0
2026-02-27DundalkBHA782nd2nd+0
2025-12-19Dundalk?2nd2nd0
2025-11-26DundalkBHA742nd1st+1
2025-10-31Dundalk?7th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0231/1027/0225/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1865% of fieldRange 11-18 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -8.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 18. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/02/20256th80/10%62%+0.62
11/04/20252nd50/10%83%+0.83
11/06/202513th40/10%20%+0.20
31/10/20257th22/10%54%+0.54
26/11/20252nd16/116%91%+0.75
19/12/20252nd9/488%92%+0.04
27/02/20262nd8/158%92%+0.34
12/06/20262nd33/10%67%+0.67
25/07/20266th8/158%17%-0.41