10
Let's Smash It
3yo Colt · 9-8 · OR 80
Curragh · Gra Chocolates Maiden · 1m 2f
#4
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Navan | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Curragh | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Leopardstown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Dundalk | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-05 | Dundalk | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1853% of fieldRange 8-18 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -26.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 18. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/12/2025 | 2nd | 22/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |
| 12/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 06/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 85% | +0.37 |
| 22/08/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 73% | +0.12 |
| 02/09/2026 | 9th | 13/8 | 91% | 33% | -0.58 |