16

Vico Road

3yo Gelding · 9-8

Curragh · Gra Chocolates Maiden · 1m 2f

#15

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#15

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Elzaam half-brother to sprint winner Dandy Magic. Offered something to work on when fifth in 21-runner 1¼m Navan maiden on debut and showed similar form when fourth of 14 in 9f event at Punchestown 11 days ago. Has each-way claims.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Navan 05/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 21 · OR - · 1m2f10y Gd 1345/09C8C8 @ Punchestown 15/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR - · 1m1f30y Goo 13415/09C8projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15Punchestown?4th4th0
2026-09-05Navan?5th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/0915/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1841% of fieldRange 7-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength63%

Delivery trend -8.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 18. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/09/20265th50/10%80%+0.80
15/09/20264th18/15%77%+0.72