16
Saxony Charms
3yo Filly · 9-3 · OR 75
Curragh · Equiwinner Patches Fillies Maiden · 1m 1f
#7
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Navan | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Curragh | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Curragh | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Curragh | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1763% of fieldRange 1-17 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength20%
Delivery trend -22.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 17. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 26/06/2026 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 60% | -0.29 |
| 22/08/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 64% | -0.13 |
| 02/09/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 85% | +0.06 |