17
Serendipia
3yo Filly · 9-3 · OR 72
Curragh · Equiwinner Patches Fillies Maiden · 1m 1f
#9
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Navan | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Cork | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Gowran Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Naas | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Naas | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Leopardstown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1775% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength73%
Delivery trend -0.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 17.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/04/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 38% | +0.32 |
| 09/05/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 42% | +0.26 |
| 04/07/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |
| 25/07/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 14/08/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 80% | +0.25 |
| 02/09/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 80% | +0.22 |