IvyArcIvyArc
20

Sunatia

3yo Filly · 9-3 · OR 77

Curragh · Equiwinner Patches Fillies Maiden · 1m 1f

#2

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

62%

Place Prob

50%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Sent off at big odds (50/1) but left her debut form well behind when second over C&D and backed that up when filling same spot at Navan. This looks a stronger race, though.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Naas 24/06/2026 · Pos 14th of 19 · OR - · 1m Gd 12924/06C8C8 @ Curragh 19/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 1m1f GF 12919/07C8C8 @ Navan 02/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 21 · OR - · 1m2f Goo 1292/09C8projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 11
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Navan?2nd2nd0
2026-07-19Curragh?2nd2nd0
2026-06-24Naas?14th14th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0619/072/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 17100% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength100%

Delivery trend -3.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 17. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/06/202614th25/10%28%+0.28
19/07/20262nd50/10%83%+0.83
02/09/20262nd5/174%95%+0.21