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2

Blackbird

3yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 61

Durbanville · Lucky Fish Diamond Rise Maiden Plate · 6f 211y

#3

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

10%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Sixth of 11 in maiden (25/2) at Kenilworth (6.2f, good to soft) 45 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Kenilworth 30/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 12630/03C?C8 @ Kenilworth 16/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 4f214y Sft 13216/05C8C8 @ Kenilworth 23/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR - · 5f212y GS 13223/06C8C8 @ Kenilworth 12/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR - · 5f212y GS 13212/08C8projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-12Kenilworth?6th6th0
2026-06-23Kenilworth?9th9th0
2026-05-16Kenilworth?4th4th0
2026-03-30Kenilworth?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0316/0523/0612/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1462% of fieldRange 4-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%

Delivery trend -1.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/03/20264th15/261%50%-0.11
16/05/20264th5/174%63%-0.11
23/06/20269th10/382%0%-0.82
12/08/20266th11/142%50%+0.08