4
What The Fluff
3yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 67
Durbanville · Jazz Syndicate Maiden Plate (F & M) · 6f 211y
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
18%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Durbanville | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Kenilworth | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Kenilworth | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Kenilworth | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-13 | Kenilworth | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▼
Strength81%
Delivery trend -9.7% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/01/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |
| 01/04/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 24/05/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 05/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 91% | +0.49 |
| 06/09/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 78% | +0.07 |