4
Ireland Forever
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 85
Durbanville · Kikkuli Standing At Paardeberg Stud B Stakes · 6f 47y
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength30%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Durbanville | 4 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-06-22 | Greyville | 4 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Greyville | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-04-29 | Scottsville | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-02-14 | Durbanville | 4 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-01-10 | Kenilworth | 4 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength43%
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10/2025 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 43% | -0.47 |
| 29/10/2025 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 22/11/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 10/01/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 43% | +0.27 |
| 14/02/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 29/04/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 30/05/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 22/06/2026 | 9th | 7/1 | 63% | 20% | -0.43 |
| 22/08/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |