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7

Lyrical Gangster

4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 83

Durbanville · Kikkuli Standing At Paardeberg Stud B Stakes · 6f 47y

#1

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

99%

Place Prob

85%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

C&D winner. Career best when winning 10-runner handicap (7/2) at Kenilworth (6f, good to soft) 52 days ago. Getting better with each recent run.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength41%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 5 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Durbanville 13/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 12813/09C8C5 @ Durbanville 27/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 141C5 @ Durbanville 04/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 1324/03C54 @ Kenilworth 30/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 126 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Kenilworth 18/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 13218/04C54 @ Kenilworth 19/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR - · 4f214y GS 130 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Durbanville 27/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 6f47y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS27/0644 @ Durbanville 18/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 6f47y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Kenilworth 05/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 5f212y GS 133 · HIGHER CLASS5/084projClass-projected finish: 1st of 8
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-05Kenilworth41st0th+1
2026-07-18Durbanville41st0th+1
2026-06-27Durbanville42nd1st+1
2026-05-19Kenilworth42nd1st+1
2026-04-18Kenilworth?7th7th0
2026-03-30Kenilworth42nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/0930/0327/065/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength98%

Delivery trend +1.9% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 8.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/09/20251st10/1195%100%+0.05
27/09/20252nd6/168%90%+0.22
04/03/20266th10/147%17%-0.31
30/03/20262nd11/271%88%+0.16
18/04/20267th9/276%14%-0.62
19/05/20262nd10/382%90%+0.08
27/06/20262nd6/168%86%+0.17
18/07/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
05/08/20261st3/184%100%+0.16