2
Un Bel Di
5yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 89
Durbanville · Kikkuli Standing At Paardeberg Stud B Stakes · 6f 47y
#5
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength44%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Kenilworth | 3 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-06-21 | Kenilworth | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Kenilworth | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Kenilworth | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-04 | Durbanville | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-22 | Kenilworth | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength93%
Delivery trend +4.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09/2025 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 33% | -0.54 |
| 15/10/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |
| 02/11/2025 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 87% | +0.81 |
| 22/11/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 04/03/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 15/04/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 43% | -0.10 |
| 19/05/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 21/06/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 15/08/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 70% | -0.06 |