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8

Billy Bowlegs

7yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 90

Durbanville · Settlers Trophy (Listed Handicap) (4-Year-Olds and Older) · 1m 1f 208y

#6

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Nineteen runs since last win in 2023. 1¾ lengths third of 5 to Miami Summer in minor event at this course (8f, good, 25/2) 35 days ago. Up in trip. Enters calculations.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength31%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 8.3 /10 (raw 6.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC1 @ Kenilworth 14/04/2025 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR - · 7f210y Sft 129 · HIGHER CLASS14/04C1C1 @ Kenilworth 04/05/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 1m209y Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASSC1 @ Kenilworth 25/05/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 1m1f153y Sft 130 · HIGHER CLASS25/05C1C5 @ Kenilworth 15/07/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 7f101y Hvy 129C5 @ Kenilworth 31/01/2026 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 12231/01C5C5 @ Kenilworth 27/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR - · 5f212y GS 142C5 @ Kenilworth 16/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 6f211y Sft 13616/06C5C5 @ Durbanville 14/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 136C5 @ Durbanville 22/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 13222/08C5projClass-projected finish: 8th of 8
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22Durbanville?3rd4th−1
2026-07-14Durbanville?6th7th−1
2026-06-16Kenilworth?7th8th−1
2026-04-27Kenilworth?11th12th−1
2026-01-31Kenilworth?13th14th−1
2025-07-15Kenilworth?6th7th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/0415/0716/0622/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength72%

Delivery trend +2.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/04/20254th16/116%70%+0.54
04/05/20256th8/158%29%-0.29
25/05/20255th10/147%33%-0.14
15/07/20256th9/153%38%-0.15
31/01/202613th50/10%8%+0.08
27/04/202611th100/10%9%+0.09
16/06/20267th80/10%14%+0.14
14/07/20266th20/10%29%+0.29
22/08/20263rd14/126%50%+0.24