7
Douglas Dragon
6yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 47
Durbanville · Settlers Trophy (Listed Handicap) (4-Year-Olds and Older) · 1m 1f 208y
#8
Rank
Odds
150/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength30%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Greyville | ? | 12th | 8th | +3 |
| 2026-05-30 | Greyville | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-03-31 | Vaal | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-02-01 | Turffontein | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-12-16 | Turffontein | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-11-20 | Vaal | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 7-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -6.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/06/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 80% | -0.09 |
| 09/10/2025 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 09/11/2025 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 20/11/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 88% | +0.03 |
| 16/12/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 01/02/2026 | 3rd | 8/11 | 96% | 50% | -0.46 |
| 31/03/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 60% | -0.01 |
| 30/05/2026 | 11th | 17/2 | 55% | 9% | -0.46 |
| 04/07/2026 | 12th | 22/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |