1
Gentleman Joe
8yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 77
Durbanville · Settlers Trophy (Listed Handicap) (4-Year-Olds and Older) · 1m 1f 208y
#5
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength46%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Fairview | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-25 | Durbanville | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-02-28 | Kenilworth | ? | 3rd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-01-31 | Kenilworth | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-01-04 | Kenilworth | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Durbanville | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 7-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -7.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/2025 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 69% | +0.03 |
| 30/08/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 05/10/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |
| 25/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |
| 04/01/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 31/01/2026 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 28/02/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 33% | -0.55 |
| 25/03/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 10/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 88% | -0.01 |