5
Prairie Dawn
4yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 90
Durbanville · Settlers Trophy (Listed Handicap) (4-Year-Olds and Older) · 1m 1f 208y
#1
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
84%
Place Prob
57%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength18%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 2.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Kenilworth | ? | 3rd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-03-25 | Durbanville | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-25 | Kenilworth | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-21 | Durbanville | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2025-12-03 | Kenilworth | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2025-11-10 | Kenilworth | ? | 3rd | 8th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength64%
Delivery trend -6.3% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10/2025 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |
| 10/11/2025 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 03/12/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 92% | +0.02 |
| 21/01/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 25/02/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 88% | +0.06 |
| 25/03/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 24/05/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |