IvyArcIvyArc
4

Soho Heartthrob

4yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 90

Durbanville · Settlers Trophy (Listed Handicap) (4-Year-Olds and Older) · 1m 1f 208y

#4

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

9%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Career best when winning 8-runner minor event (8/1) at this course (8f, good) 74 days ago. Up in trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Turffontein 06/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 1326/07C?C6 @ Vaal 02/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 119C5 @ Turffontein 16/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 11916/10C5C1 @ Turffontein 01/11/2025 · Pos 15th of 15 · OR - · 6f211y GS 128 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Kenilworth 22/02/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 12622/02C5C5 @ Durbanville 18/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 122C5 @ Kenilworth 19/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR - · 6f211y GS 12619/05C5C5 @ Kenilworth 21/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 7f210y GS 129C5 @ Durbanville 14/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 12614/07C5projClass-projected finish: 5th of 8
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-14Durbanville?1st2nd−1
2026-06-21Kenilworth?3rd4th−1
2026-05-19Kenilworth?7th8th−1
2026-03-18Durbanville?3rd4th−1
2026-02-22Kenilworth?8th9th−1
2025-11-01Turffontein?15th11th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/071/1119/0514/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +3.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/07/20253rd28/10%71%+0.71
02/09/20252nd11/893%83%-0.09
16/10/20254th15/890%67%-0.23
01/11/202515th40/10%0%0.00
22/02/20268th14/126%30%+0.04
18/03/20263rd16/116%71%+0.56
19/05/20267th33/10%40%+0.40
21/06/20263rd16/116%60%+0.44
14/07/20261st15/261%100%+0.39