3
World First
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 65
Durbanville · Settlers Trophy (Listed Handicap) (4-Year-Olds and Older) · 1m 1f 208y
#7
Rank
Odds
80/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength6%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 8.2 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -2.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Durbanville | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-01-31 | Kenilworth | ? | 12th | 13th | −1 |
| 2026-01-13 | Kenilworth | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-11-19 | Kenilworth | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2025-10-18 | Durbanville | ? | 8th | 13th | −4 |
| 2025-09-22 | Durbanville | ? | 6th | 11th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 8-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -13.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 22/09/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 55% | +0.28 |
| 18/10/2025 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 50% | +0.08 |
| 19/11/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 13/01/2026 | 1st | 17/2 | 55% | 100% | +0.45 |
| 31/01/2026 | 12th | 5/1 | 74% | 8% | -0.65 |
| 22/08/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |