1
Beware The Bomb
5yo Mare · 9-3 · OR 82
Durbanville · Diana Stakes (Grade 3) (Fillies And Mares) · 6f 211y
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength42%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Kenilworth | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Kenilworth | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-05-25 | Kenilworth | ? | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2025-05-04 | Kenilworth | ? | 7th | 7th | −0 |
| 2024-12-07 | Kenilworth | ? | 7th | 7th | +0 |
| 2024-11-09 | Kenilworth | ? | 2nd | 2nd | +0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 5-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -10.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/04/2024 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 75% | +0.70 |
| 14/09/2024 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 12/10/2024 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 09/11/2024 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 91% | +0.54 |
| 07/12/2024 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 04/05/2025 | 7th | 11/4 | 86% | 33% | -0.52 |
| 25/05/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 27/04/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 21/06/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |