3
Fog In Finland
3yo Filly · 7-12 · OR 82
Durbanville · Diana Stakes (Grade 3) (Fillies And Mares) · 6f 211y
#8
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲5
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 11.5 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: -5.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Durbanville | 4 | 2nd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-06-27 | Durbanville | ? | 6th | 6th | −0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Kenilworth | 5 | 5th | 10th | −4 |
| 2026-05-03 | Kenilworth | ? | 1st | 10th | −7 |
| 2026-03-30 | Kenilworth | ? | 6th | 15th | −7 |
| 2026-02-22 | Kenilworth | ? | 13th | 22th | −7 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength20%
Delivery trend -3.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/02/2026 | 13th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 30/03/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 03/05/2026 | 1st | 40/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 31/05/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 27/06/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 06/09/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |