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6

Stormwatch

4yo Filly · 9-3 · OR 94

Durbanville · Diana Stakes (Grade 3) (Fillies And Mares) · 6f 211y

#2

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

15%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

C&D winner. 2 wins from 5 runs this year. 5/1, didn't need to improve to win 10-runner listed race at Kenilworth (8f, soft) by 3½ lengths from Viva La Vida. Off 146 days.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength41%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Durbanville 07/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 1267/094C1 @ Durbanville 27/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 114C0 @ Kenilworth 08/11/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASS8/11C?C0 @ Kenilworth 06/12/2025 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASSC0 @ Kenilworth 10/01/2026 · Pos 14th of 15 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 120 · HIGHER CLASS10/01C?3 @ Kenilworth 04/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 126C1 @ Kenilworth 28/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 12528/02C1C1 @ Kenilworth 06/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 123C1 @ Kenilworth 03/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 7f210y Sft 1213/05C1projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 8
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-03Kenilworth?1st1st−0
2026-04-06Kenilworth?4th4th−0
2026-02-28Kenilworth?2nd2nd0
2026-02-04Kenilworth31st4th−2
2026-01-10Kenilworth?14th14th+0
2025-12-06Kenilworth?9th9th+0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/096/1228/023/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength68%

Delivery trend +0.0% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 8.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/09/20251st9/488%100%+0.12
27/09/20252nd9/276%91%+0.15
08/11/20258th9/276%22%-0.54
06/12/20259th18/15%27%+0.22
10/01/202614th25/10%7%+0.07
04/02/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
28/02/20262nd3/184%86%+0.02
06/04/20264th15/890%57%-0.33
03/05/20261st10/382%100%+0.18