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Cafe Culture

7yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 106

Durbanville · Matchem Stakes (Grade 3) · 6f 211y

#4

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Course winner. Latest win at Kenilworth in April. 33/1, creditable 3¾ lengths sixth of 12 to Buffalo Storm Cody in Gr 1 at Greyville (6f, good) 62 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength41%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC1 @ Durbanville 27/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 13627/09C1C2 @ Kenilworth 13/12/2025 · Pos 12th of 18 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 137C0 @ Kenilworth 10/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASS10/01C?C0 @ Kenilworth 31/01/2026 · Pos 13th of 16 · OR - · 5f103y Gd 137C0 @ Kenilworth 28/02/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS28/02C?C1 @ Kenilworth 27/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 5f212y GS 132C2 @ Scottsville 23/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 12823/05C2C1 @ Greyville 04/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 132C0 @ Greyville 26/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASS26/07C?projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 8
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-26Greyville?6th6th+0
2026-07-04Greyville?7th7th0
2026-05-23Scottsville?2nd4th−1
2026-04-27Kenilworth?1st1st0
2026-02-28Kenilworth?8th8th+0
2026-01-31Kenilworth?13th13th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/0931/0123/0526/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength89%

Delivery trend +1.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 8.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/09/20252nd9/153%89%+0.36
13/12/202512th28/10%35%+0.35
10/01/20266th80/10%62%+0.62
31/01/202613th18/15%20%+0.15
28/02/20268th40/10%46%+0.46
27/04/20261st10/147%100%+0.53
23/05/20262nd15/261%93%+0.32
04/07/20267th22/10%54%+0.54
26/07/20266th25/10%55%+0.55