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7

Jet Force

5yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 116

Durbanville · Matchem Stakes (Grade 3) · 6f 211y

#1

Rank

Odds

4/7

Win Prob

97%

Place Prob

74%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

C&D winner. 4 wins from 8 runs this year. Latest win at Greyville in July. Very good length second of 12 to Buffalo Storm Cody in Gr 1 (7/2) at Greyville (6f, good) 62 days ago. Enters calculations.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength25%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.5
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Kenilworth 13/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS13/12C?C0 @ Kenilworth 10/01/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASSC0 @ Durbanville 14/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 13614/02C?C1 @ Kenilworth 28/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 132C1 @ Kenilworth 06/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 1266/04C1C0 @ Greyville 02/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR - · 6f211y GS 126 · HIGHER CLASSC0 @ Greyville 06/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASS6/06C?C1 @ Greyville 04/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 132C0 @ Greyville 26/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASS26/07C?projClass-projected finish: 1st of 8
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-26Greyville?2nd2nd+0
2026-07-04Greyville?1st1st0
2026-06-06Greyville?7th7th+0
2026-05-02Greyville?7th7th+0
2026-04-06Kenilworth?1st1st0
2026-02-28Kenilworth?1st1st−0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/1228/026/0626/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▼
Strength97%

Delivery trend -3.4% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/12/20256th20/10%58%+0.58
10/01/202611th50/10%23%+0.23
14/02/20261st13/891%100%+0.09
28/02/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
06/04/20261st7/491%100%+0.09
02/05/20267th14/126%25%-0.01
06/06/20267th12/137%45%+0.09
04/07/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
26/07/20262nd10/382%91%+0.08